North Korea and South Korea

I want offer my comments on the current situation that exists between North and South Korea, especially since I'm currently living in South Korea:

First and foremost, I have accepted the fact that anything could happen at any given moment. Yes, the North could decide to launch a nuclear weapon against the South. They could invade the South. North Korea could simply shoot more missiles at South Korea. There are two things to take into consideration though when asking why I would choose to live here while the possibility of these events occurring exists on a daily basis:

1. This might seem hard to do, but you simply learn to live with the threat and not really think about it. It is no different then all of the other possible things that could go wrong on any given day in your life. People die on the way to and from work every day in American due to car accidents or any other number of unfortunate incidents. People die at work and at school in America every year. You know it is only a matter of time until you hear of some person that has decided there is nothing left to live for, and the only way to die is to take people with them. I could go on for awhile with this train of thought, but the bottom line is that you can't go around worrying about every little thing that could possibly go wrong. Otherwise, you would never go anywhere or try anything. I know that living in a country under the constant threat of war seems more extreme than the possibility of dying in a car accident on the way to work when you are reading this on a computer in America, but it simply isn't that different.
   How many people in South Korea have died since the signing of the armistice at the end of the Korean War? 175 soldiers and civilians have died due to a result of the current conflict between the two Koreas. When you consider that 160 of those people died in two incidents (The sinking of the Cheonan in 2010 and the bombing of a South Korean passenger jet in 1987) the numbers are in fact pretty low. Far more people die due to guns in America in one year than have died during the current Korean conflict. In 2007 alone, 30,000 people died due to guns. I don't feel to bad taking my chances here. This isn't an attack on gun ownership; my point is that some things are easily blown out of proportion.
   In fact, as far as safety goes, I have rarely felt as safe anywhere as I do in Korea. I walk everywhere here. I can take a bus or a taxi as well, but I like walking. However, I would be very apprehensive about walking back home as far as I do and when I do here in South Korea. Consistently I have a 20 minute walk home at night, sometimes as late as 3 or 4 in the morning. I have walked over an hour to a bus station after midnight. I have walked through what would be considered seedy areas of town (they aren't that seedy) after 2am. I am not saying I wouldn't do this back home, but I would be much more apprehensive about doing it. I doubt I would ever walk to a bus station at 1am, and if I were walking around downtown in a city back home I would be constantly looking around to see who was where and what was going on. Here, I don't worry about it. Nobody has guns, and you don't feel like every one is trying to size you up as you walk down the street. It isn't that things don't occur here, it just feels like a much different environment.
2. China's role in the conflict goes a long way in ensuring that nothing too crazy is likely to happen. China is The North's only real ally. Yes they have other friends, but those other friends don't have much say in international affairs. The North heavily relies on China for both imports and exports, so they can't afford to alienate them. If they do, their already dire economic and social issues will become truly unmanageable. China's single biggest concern is the continued growth of its economy. China has over a billion people, and millions of people each year are leaving their rural homes in search of jobs in China's every growing industrial economy. The Chinese government has to keep these people happy. They cannot afford to have an economy that does not provide jobs for those that want them. The single biggest reason the Communist Government in China has not seen a repeat of Tiananmen Square is that since that incident, China's economy has been growing at an unbelievable pace. If people feel they have an avenue to success, then they don't revolt. China knows this and is focused on ensuring it continues.
   China is therefore in a very interesting and precarious position. Turning their back on The North would have a heavy effect on China's economy. First, they simply do a lot of business with The North. Shutting down a proven market is not good for business. Second, given how much North Korea gets from China, if that supply line were shut off, it would be extremely difficult for the North to sustain itself. If North Korea fell apart, a large number of refugees would likely stream into China, putting a major strain on China's economy. Also, China can ill afford to ignore South Korea. China cannot risk losing South Korea, The United States, or Japan as trading partners. That is exactly what could occur if China turned its back on South Korea in the event of a war.
   As the dominant economic power in the region, China is in a unique position. They cannot afford any interruptions in their day to day economic affairs. This is exactly what would occur if they leaned too heavily one way or the other. Thus, for China, maintaining the status quo is of the utmost importance. China will likely do all it can to prevent any sort of real escalation.

There is one other deterrent. That is North Korea itself. This is not something you can rely upon, as North Korea and its leadership has shown itself to be highly unpredictable. However, consider this, how long would North Korea actually last in a war? Even in a worst case scenario in which they launched nuclear weapons at South Korea or Japan, that would be it. They would have every bit of military might that exists between South Korea, Japan, and The United States focused against them faster than they would know what to do. In addition, though many of our European allies might have issues with our wars in the Middle East, it would be hard to imagine them supporting North Korea in war. Again, North Korea has very few friends. China couldn't do that much to help them either. As much as they want to maintain the status quo, risking alienating so many economic powers in a war would be suicidal for China's continued growth. Therefore, assuming that the leaders of North Korea want to maintain their current position of power (if you look at the way the leadership lives it would be nearly impossible to think that they want anything else), then one would have to think that North Korea would be hesitant to do anything too extreme. Kim Jung Il doesn't want to be a toppled despot, he wants to be an active despot.

What led to this post was a discussion I had with my parents. They asked how things were going in Korea, given the recent escalations after the attack on Yeonpyeong Island. They were watching the news earlier in the week, and they were extremely worried about a things getting completely out of hand. This was due to the way the 24/7 news media was portraying the military drills and exercises that South Korea was about to begin. The Western Media had portrayed things in such a way that it seemed war was imminent. As soon as South Korea began its drills, North Korea would undoubtedly launch an attack. This would be followed by a response from South Korea and then the only thing left would be war. I am not a fan of our 24/7 news media. They take every little story and make it seem as if it is the biggest thing since the moon landing. Since they are on 24/7, they end up making news and not reporting it. In addition, what better way to attract viewers then to make extreme predictions and in turn say that you will report on the accuracy of the prediction. At this point the viewers expect the predictions to come true, because that is the focus of the news. It is on predictions, not on actual outcomes.

I cannot tell you how bad I felt as my parents were talking about the story and the effect it had on them. I am here in Korea having a great time: working, traveling, partying, and loving life; they are back home nervous and worried because of the manner in which the media chooses to portray things. Even for me, the only time I get really nervous about the situation is when I read about it on western news media websites or talk to people back home about it. Otherwise, I and seemingly every other westerner in South Korea that I have discussed this with have come to terms with the current state of affairs and are generally happily going about our daily lives. Have we discussed what we would do if war did break out? Yes. Are we thinking about it very often? No. All I can suggest to those of you back home reading this is that you do the same. Until you hear about something actually happening in terms of an attack, (i.e. The Cheonan or Yeonpyeong Island) don't get too worried about the situation. The news media will blow everything out of proportion. This is what they do. There are many circumstances in play that deter an actual full scale conflict from taking place. Assuming that North Korea doesn't feel like committing regime suicide and China wants to maintain their torrid growth, I expect those circumstances to help maintain the status quo. As crazy as that status quo might seem, that is just the way life is on the Korean Peninsula.